Identifying an Appropriate Forecasting Technique for Predicting Future Demand: A Case Study on a Private University of Bangladesh

Sayma Suraiya, M. Babul Hasan

Abstract


Demand forecasting and inventory control of printing paper is crucial that is frequently used every day for the different purposes in all sectors of educational area especially in Universities. A case study is conducted in a University store house to collect all historical demand data of printing papers for last 6 years (18 trimesters), from January (Spring) 2011 to December (Fall) 2016. We will use the different models of time series forecasting which always offers a steady base-level forecast and is good at handling regular demand patterns. The aim of the research paper is to find out the less and best error free forecasting techniques for the demand of printing paper for a particular time being by using the quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting models like weighted moving average, 3-point single moving average, 3-point double moving average, 5-point moving average, exponential smoothing, regression analysis/linear trend, Holt’s method and Winter’s method. According to the forecasting error measurement, we will observe in this research that the best forecasting technique is linear trend model. By using the quantities of data and drawing the conclusion with an acceptable accuracy, our analysis will help the university to decide how much inventory is absolutely needed for the planning horizon.

Keywords


Demand forecast, inventory, time series analysis, error measurement.

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Dhaka University Journal of Science ISSN 1022-2502 (Print) 2408-8528 (Online)